Lecture 2: Estimating a Slope
(Chapter 2.1–2.7)
Recall 计量经济学的构成
经济理论
数理模型
统计理论
计量模型
经济理论
数理模型
统计理论
计量模型
现象
计量与经济理论之差异
Economic theory: qualitative results—
Demand Curves Slope Downward
Econometrics: quantitative results—
price elasticity of demand for milk = -.75
计量与统计之差异
Statistics: "summarize the data faithfully";
"let the data speak for themselves."
Econometrics: " what do we learn from economic theory AND the data at hand "
计量能做啥事
Estimation: What is the marginal propensity to consume of Taiwan (结构分析)
Hypothesis Testing: Do Korean college workers' productivity higher than Taiwan (检定假说)
Prediction & Forecasting: What will Personal Savings be in 2004 if GDP is $14,864 And will it grow in the near future (2008) (预期及预测)
Economists Ask:
"What Changes What and How "
Higher Income, Higher Saving
Higher Price, Lower Quantity Demanded
Higher Interest Rate, Lower Investment
Savings Versus Income
Theory Would Assume an Exact Relationship, e.g., Y =bX
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