Use of NCEP Meteorological Model Predictions for HPAC Applications
Jeff McQueen, Dusan Jovic, Binbin Zhou, Sundara Gopalakrishnan,
Marina Tsidulko, Jun Du and Geoff DiMego
NOAA/NWS
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Environmental Modeling Center
December 18, 2006
NCEP AT&D Focus for HPAC
Improved Coupling of Mesoscale Models w/ HPAC (Tsidulko, Jovic)
Special real-time High Resolution Nested Grid Runs (eg: Torino Olympics)
Additional turbulence Fields output to NCEP GRIB files and to DTRA servers
Evaluation of WRF turbulence characteristics with PSU & Hanna Cons.
Tested on IHOP May 28, 2002 case, 12 km CONUS
Development of a real-time PBL height and cloud cover verification system
Development and Testing of a High Resolution Ensemble Prediction Systems (Jovic, Zhou, Du)
NCEP WRF ensemble breeding system
Uses both ARW and NMM cores and physics suites
Can be initialized from GDAS or NDAS land or Atmos. states0
Core choice through Unix scripts
6 WRF members tested and evaluated in 21 member SREF
Began testing a 10 member WRF HREF
Providing experimental ensemble wind variance fields needed to drive HPAC uncertainty calculations
Incorporation of probabilistic verification for Ensemble System evaluation
Deterministic FVS developments: pbl hgt & cloud cover verification
Ranked Histograms, spread, statistical consistency, outlier diagrams added for ensemble verification
Additional NCEP products with potential applications for AT&D
Homeland Security Runs
On-demand real-time High Resolution WRF 4km Grid Runs
26 pre-defined nests
Can be extended to use WRF-NMM redeployable nesting system (tested for 2006 Winter Olympics)
Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis system (RTMA)
2-D VAR surface hourly 5 km
Can be extended to include boundary layer fields
Can be extended to utilize Urbanet/DCNET

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