"目录"
," 国信证券-市场判断和投资组合(12月)"
,,,,,,,,,,,,"2010年11月30日"
,,,,,"分析师:","方焱",,"联系人:","雷达"
,,,,,"电话:","0755-82130648",,"电话:","0755-82132098"
,,,,,"E-mail:","fangyan@guosen.com.cn",,"E-mail:","leida1@guosen.com.cn"
,,,,,"证券投资咨询执业资格证书编码:S0980206110188"
,,"目录"
,,,,,,"金宝典投资组合(1个月)"
,,,,,,"银宝典投资组合(3个月以上)"
,,,,,,"11月回顾"
,"请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分",,,,,,,,"全球视野","全球视野","本土智慧"
" 免责条款 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,国信证券经济研究所力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证.本报告仅向特定客户传送,未经国信证券经济研究所授权许可,任何引用,转载以及向第三方传播的行为均可能承担法律责任.国信证券股份有限责任公司及其附属机构(包括经济研究所)不对投资者买卖有关公司股份而产生的盈亏承担责任. "
"金宝典投资组合(短期)"
,"最后更新日期:",,"2010-11-30",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"返回目录"
,"国信证券-短期投资组合(2010年12月)"
,"代码","名称","行业","股票 价格","近期合理估值","EPS",,,,"PE",,,,"BPS","PB","投资评级","配置 权重","推荐理由"
,,,,,,"2009A","2010E","2011E","2012E","2009A","2010E","2011E","2012E"
,002132,"恒星科技","黑色金属","34.25 ","50.00 ","0.39 ","0.38 ","1.25 ","1.66 ","87.82 ","90.13 ","27.40 ","20.63 ","4.01 ","8.54 ","推荐","24.35%","1)公司切割钢丝项目进展超预期,预计明年产量8000吨,后年产量达到14000吨,业绩大幅增长; 2)公司将完善新能源产业链,十二五期间将积极向新能源,新材料方向转型,估值提升; 3)目前公司股价对应2011,2012年市盈率分别只有27,20倍,股价仍有50%的提升空间."
,000785,"武汉中商","商业贸易","12.45 ","17.00 ","0.21 ","0.30 ","0.50 ","0.69 ","59.29 ","41.50 ","24.90 ","18.04 ","2.63 ","4.73 ","推荐","22.87%","武汉中商百货商场凭借地铁开通后地段优势,有较大的增长空间,销品茂项目步入高速增长期,新领导上任带来毛利率提升和业绩改善.我们认为公司发展方向明确,后续管理改善及融资需求较明确,且有整合或被整合的巨大内在价值.预计2010～12年营业收入增长12%,20%及16%,EPS分别为0.30元,0.50及0.69元,首次给予推荐评级,公司合理价值为15～18元/股."
,002238,"天威视讯","传媒","31.99 ","47.00 ","0.29 ","0.38 ","0.77 ","0.90 ","110.31 ","84.18 ","41.55 ","35.54 ","4.74 ","6.75 ","推荐","20.90%","上调投资评级至"推荐".不考虑关外资产收购,2010-12年EPS分别为0.38元,0.77元和0.90元,当前PE分别为83,40和35倍,而考虑关外资产收购的情况下,2011-12年EPS分别为0.944元和1.069元,对应PE分别为33和29倍.我们将天威视讯的投资评级从"谨慎推荐"上调至"推荐",合理价47元/股,建议投资者现价买入,长期持有.股价表现的催化剂包括:(1)折旧摊销结束对EPS的贡献在2010年报和2011年一季报中体现;(2)天威视讯母公司免税被正式确认;(3)关外资产收购启动;(4)关外资产免税;(5)省网整合预期加强"
,601318,"中国平安","金融","57.75 ","75.00 ","1.89 ","2.20 ","2.93 ","3.67 ","30.56 ","26.25 ","19.71 ","15.74 ","14.52 ","3.98 ","推荐","15.88%","1)投资受益于加息周期,预计2011年总收益率4.9%.假设2011年中证10债指数隐含的到期收益率在目前基础上提升60bp至5.1%,则非权益类资产收益率提升30bp至4.5%,加上权益类资产保守预计8%收益率,推算总投资收益率为4.9%.同时由于交易类债券占比低,债券浮亏对利润影响有限.. 2)加息通过750日均线提升净利润23%.若不再加息,预计2012年750日均线对净利润的影响才能由负转正;若继续加息,假设2011年债券收益率上行60bp,则折现率将上升18.9bp,提升净利润23%. 3)承保增速趋于平稳,寿险总保费增长27%.受益于期缴占比提高,叠加效应确保2011年续期保费增长32%,在新单增速稍有回落的假设下(增长率为22%),总保费增长27%.产险保费增长23%. 4)具有足够的估值安全边际.公司目前股价隐含的2011年新业务倍数为9.9倍,而对应的一年新业务价值增长率26.4%.公司A股股价较H股折价25%,处于历史高位."

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